peter lynch value model and its good or bad new tech future how to determine a stock value! ?

 dec 11 2026

Here’s a clear breakdown of why Salesforce’s stock price rose (roughly ~6× over ~10 years) and how its intrinsic value can be estimated, including whether the Peter Lynch model is appropriate.

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📈 Why Salesforce Stock Grew ~6× in ~10 Years

Salesforce (CRM) delivered strong long-term returns for several core reasons:

✅ 1. Subscription & Recurring Revenue Model

Salesforce operates largely on recurring subscription revenue, which is predictable and valued highly by markets. That stability supports both growth and high valuation multiples.

✅ 2. Consistent Revenue & Cash Flow Growth

Over the years, Salesforce grew revenue substantially and expanded free cash flow — especially as the business matured and scaled globally. Some analysts reported free cash flow growing at ~30% CAGR over a multi-year period. Stock Minds

✅ 3. Strategic Acquisitions & Expanded Platform

Salesforce’s acquisitions (e.g., MuleSoft, Tableau, Slack, Informatica) were integrated into a broader CRM and enterprise platform strategy — increasing total addressable market and customer “stickiness.” Investing.com Canada

✅ 4. Margin Expansion & Profitability Improvements

Salesforce improved operating margins significantly — from low single-digits early in the decade to ~20%+ more recently — which boosts earnings per share and free cash flow. Trefis

✅ 5. Multiple Expansion from Valuation

A big part of the price rise is multiple expansion — investors paying more for each dollar of revenue, driven by leadership in CRM and a pivot into AI services (like Agentforce & Data Cloud). Trefis

👉 In other words, price growth came from both business growth and investors willing to pay higher multiples.

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📊 Is Salesforce’s Intrinsic Value Based on Peter Lynch or Other Models?

There isn’t one single “official” intrinsic value. Investors often use multiple valuation models, and they give different results:

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🧠 1. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula

Peter Lynch sometimes used earnings growth × current earnings to approximate a fair value.

• One online fair value estimate using Lynch’s formula gave about $174.97 — below the current price, suggesting overvaluation by that method. Value Investing
• Another calculation pegged Salesforce’s Lynch fair value around $288, roughly in line with the current price. GuruFocus

Takeaway: Lynch’s method is simple and assumes recent growth continues, so estimates vary widely based on how “growth” is measured and capped (often at 25% in these formulas). It gives a rough relative check, not a detailed intrinsic value.

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📈 2. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Models

DCF attempts to estimate the present value of future free cash flows — a more standard intrinsic valuation approach.

• Several DCF estimates give values roughly ~$280–$356 per share, indicating potential undervaluation depending on assumptions. Yahoo Finance+1
• Other tools see values near ~$266–$280 based on combined DCF/relative models. Value Sense

DCF models are more nuanced because they explicitly account for future cash flow growth and required returns — but they depend heavily on growth and discount rate assumptions.

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📊 3. Other Valuation Methods

Valuation can also be done via:

✅ Relative valuation (P/E, P/S vs peers)
✅ Earnings power value or adjusted cash flow models
These often yield different estimates from both Lynch and DCF.

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📌 Summary: What This Means for Salesforce

Method	Typical Result	Interpretation
Peter Lynch Fair Value	~$175–$290	Rough heuristic — sensitive to growth rate assumptions
DCF / Discounted Cash Flow	~$280–$356+	Focused on cash flow potential — often shows fair/undervalued
Market Price Today	Around ~$230–$270 (varies over time)	Implies investor expectations baked in

👉 Intrinsic values vary depending on methodology. Peter Lynch’s formula is simpler and less precise, while DCF is more detailed but assumption-dependent.

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📌 What Drives Differences in Valuation?

• Growth assumptions (future cash flow/earnings growth)
• Discount rates / required return
• Terminal value assumptions
• Market sentiment (AI premium)

All of these can dramatically shift intrinsic value estimates.

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🧠 Key Takeaway

Salesforce has grown roughly 6× over ~10 years due to strong business fundamentals, recurring revenue, margin expansion, acquisitions, and market valuation multiple expansion. Its intrinsic value cannot be pinned to a single model — the Peter Lynch approach is one of several tools, but discounted cash flow (DCF) and other models are generally considered more robust for intrinsic valuation.

You said:

what s ithe range of intrinsic value of for slaesforce

ChatGPT said:

Here’s a range of intrinsic value estimates for Salesforce (CRM) based on different valuation methods and recent models — because intrinsic value isn’t a single number but a range dependent on assumptions:

📊 Current Intrinsic Value Ranges (2025 Estimates)

🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Based Ranges

These models forecast future cash flows and discount them back to present value:

• Broad DCF intrinsic range: approximately $118.60 – $357.69 per share depending on growth and exit assumptions. Value Investing
• Example: Growth-exit 5-year model gives ~$182 – $357 range. Value Investing
• Other DCF scenarios (bullish/bearish) suggest $162 – $236. Trading Advisor Storage

Why wide? DCF is highly sensitive to assumptions (growth rates, discount rate, terminal value).

🔹 Higher DCF Estimates

Some analysts using different cash flow projections estimate higher fair value:

• One model estimates DCF intrinsic around ~$312 per share. The Henry Fund
• Another recent DCF (GuruFocus) suggests ~$416 per share (Dec 10, 2025). GuruFocus

These reflect more optimistic growth and discount-rate assumptions.

🔹 Relative & Other Models

Valuations relying on relative metrics or fair value formulas also give different ranges:

• Intrinsic value from combined models often sits around $266 – $281 per share. Value Sense
• Some multiples-based valuations are much lower (e.g., P/E-based ~ $50–$106 range in one report), showing how methodology matters. Trading Advisor Storage

📌 Typical Composite Intrinsic Value Range

Across methodologies in late 2025, a realistic range of intrinsic value estimates for Salesforce tends to be:

⬇️ Bearish/Conservative: ~ $120 – $180 per share
↔️ Base/Consensus: ~ $180 – $280 per share
⬆️ Bullish/Optimistic: ~ $280 – $420+ per share

(These are broad ranges from different models and should not be taken as precise forecasts.)

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📍 Why These Ranges Vary so Much

1. Different Valuation Approaches

• DCF models rely on future free cash flow assumptions — small changes in growth or discount rates change values a lot.
• Relative valuations (P/E, EV/EBITDA) compare CRM to peers — they can swing widely depending on market sentiment.
• Fair value formulas like Peter Lynch, Graham, etc., use simpler heuristics and can differ sharply from DCF. Value Investing

2. Assumptions About Growth & AI

Some bullish scenarios assume strong long-term growth from AI initiatives (like Agentforce & Data Cloud). Bearish ones assume slower growth or margin pressure. TechStock²

3. Discount Rate / Risk Preferences

Higher required returns (higher discount rates) push down intrinsic value; lower ones push it up.

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📍 How to Use This Range

• If the current price is below the low end (~$120–$180) → value investors might see deep undervaluation under conservative assumptions.
• If price is near the mid (~$180–$280) → might be fairly valued under reasonable consensus assumptions.
• If price is above the high end (~$280–$420) → implies very optimistic growth assumptions priced in.

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📌 Key Takeaways

• Salesforce’s intrinsic value is not one fixed number — it varies widely by valuation method.
• The DCF range today is roughly ~$120 to ~$420+ per share, with most reasonable estimates clustering $180–$300.
• Simple models (like Peter Lynch) give rough heuristics, but DCF-based and blended models are more widely used for fundamental intrinsic value. Value Investing

best stock peter lynch ,odel value in usa or tsx

ChatGPT said:

Here are two U.S.‑listed stocks that could align reasonably well with the investment philosophy of Peter Lynch (i.e., seeking understandable businesses, solid growth, and reasonable valuations). Important caveat: This is not investment advice. You should do your own due diligence or consult a financial advisor — especially given your Canadian (Vancouver) location and difference in tax/forex considerations.

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1. AX (Axos Financial Inc.)

Axos Financial Inc. (AX)

$80.69

+$0.04(+0.05%)Today

Open79.87

Volume71.4K

Day Low79.32

Day High81.11

Year Low54.46

Year High93.84

Why this might fit Lynch’s style:

• PE ratio (TTM) around ~10.7x (or roughly in that area) according to recent data. GuruFocus+2GuruFocus+2

• Growth: ROE ~17.4% and historical earnings growth ~20%+ over last several years. StockAnalysis+1

• Reasonably simple business model (commercial / consumer banking) — something understandable, as Lynch liked.

• Relatively low P/B (~1.69) and decent fundamentals for a bank. StockAnalysis

Risks / things to check:

• Banking sector is cyclical; interest rate changes, credit cycles matter.

• Growth may be moderating. Need to evaluate forward growth.

• Even though the valuation looks reasonable, ensure there’s sustainable earnings and not just cyclical upside.

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2. FSUN (FirstSun Capital Bancorp)

Firstsun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)

$33.58

+$0.07(+0.21%)Today

Open33.50

Volume135.4K

Day Low32.61

Day High33.82

Year Low31.70

Year High45.32

Why this might be a candidate:

• It is a smaller regional bank with decent growth metrics: e.g., Q3 2025 return on equity ~8.2% and loans growing ~10.6% annualized. Sunflower Bank

• Tangible book value improving; deposit growth strong; diversified revenue mix. MarketBeat+1

• Being somewhat under the radar compared to large banks — a trait Lynch liked (finding overlooked opportunities).

Risks / things to check:

• The ROE is lower than some peers; the scale is smaller which might increase risk.

• Banking/regulatory risks: credit quality, interest margin pressure, deposit competition.

• You’ll want to check valuation carefully (PE, P/B) and forward earnings expectations.

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My “Lynch‑style” take

If I had to pick one of the two, Axos Financial (AX) stands out a bit more for me given its stronger growth metrics + reasonable valuation. It more closely ticks Lynch’s boxes: understandable business, decent growth, reasonable price.

However — and this is critical: neither is a perfect Lynch “ten‑bagger” candidate, nor should they be taken as such without deeper analysis. Lynch emphasized investing in what you know, doing your homework, and being able to explain the business simply. Kiplinger+1

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Things you should check before proceeding

• PEG ratio: Lynch often looked for companies with a PEG (Price/Earnings‑to‑Growth) ratio ≤1 or thereabouts. Investopedia+1

• Earnings growth rate: Has the company been growing earnings per share at a solid clip (e.g., 15‑30% annually) without valuation getting overheated?

• Debt / balance sheet: Lynch liked companies with manageable debt and strong balance sheets.

• Business you understand: Can you explain what the company does and how it earns money?

• Margin of safety / valuation: Is the current price giving you a cushion vs. what you think the business is worth?

• Canadian tax/forex considerations: Since you’re in Vancouver/Canada, U.S. stocks carry U.S. withholding tax, currency risk (USD→CAD), and maybe different tax treatment.

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If you like, I can scan a larger list of U.S. and Canadian (TSX‑listed) stocks that meet Lynch‑style filters (e.g., PEG < 1, solid growth, understandable business) and we can shortlist 5‑10 candidates for you. Would that be helpful?

You said:

yes

ChatGPT said:

Sounds good. Here are three stocks — one Canadian (TSX) and two U.S. — that meet at least part of a “Peter Lynch‑style” value + growth screen (especially around PEG <1) for you to dig into further. These are ideas only, not recommendations. You’ll still need to check detailed fundamentals, business quality, future growth, and risks.

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1) Canadian (TSX) candidate

**Aritzia Inc. (TSX: ATZ)

• A Canadian apparel/retail company (“design and retail of accessories and women’s apparel”) listed on TSX. smallcappower.com

• The article notes Aritzia has had a PEG ratio under 0.75 in an earlier period. smallcappower.com

• Why it might fit Lynch style: relatively understandable business (fashion retail + e‑commerce), growth (especially e‑commerce surge) + valuation that at one time looked attractive.

• Key things to check: is the growth sustainable (e‑commerce growth, international expansion), what are margins doing, competitive risk, whether the PEG is still that attractive now.

• If the PEG is low because future growth is expected to drop, then it might be a value trap — so check future growth projections.

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2) U.S. candidate

**Pinterest Inc. (NASDAQ: PINS)

• According to a recent screen, Pinterest has a PEG ratio of ~0.5, indicating strong value relative to growth. Zacks+1

• Business: social media platform, large user base, growth opportunity via digital advertising + AI features.

• Why it fits: Growth expected (earnings projected up 33.3% in 2025 then ~22% in 2026) + PEG well under 1. Zacks+1

• Things to check: Competitive risk (big peers: Meta, TikTok etc), monetization path, user growth sustainability, how much of the “growth” is already priced in; are there headwinds like ad weak spots or economic downturn.

• Also check whether the valuation discount is justified by risk (which Lynch tried to guard against).

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3) U.S. candidate

**Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU)

• Another company cited in low‑PEG stocks list. Zacks+1

• Business: memory and storage semiconductors — which is more complex than many Lynch‑style “you understand the business” companies, but the secular tailwinds (AI, data centre growth) are strong.

• Why it fits: PEG is cited as low (one article says ~0.4) in a growth sector. TradingView

• Things to check: The semiconductor business is cyclical; past growth might not persist; also more technical/industry‑specific than typical Lynch picks (which tend to be more consumer or simple businesses). But it could be a “growth at a value” play.

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Why these screens matter & what to watch

• The PEG ratio (Price/Earnings ÷ Growth rate) is a helpful filter to combine growth and value. A PEG <1 often signals the market expects less growth than the company might deliver (or conversely that you're paying less for each unit of expected growth) — which is aligned with Lynch’s approach of “finding growth at a reasonable price”. Investopedia+1

• But PEG alone is not sufficient. As many investors note, “cheap” stocks (low PEG) can be cheap for a reason (declining business, structural headwinds). You must check:

  • Is the business understandable? Lynch emphasized knowing what you’re owning.

  • Is the growth sustainable (not just past growth)?

  • Is the balance sheet strong (manageable debt, etc.)?

  • Is the valuation giving you a margin of safety?

  • Are you paying for growth (and getting it) rather than paying for past growth that might not repeat?

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If you like, I can pull together a list of 10‑15 stocks (US + Canada) that currently meet strict criteria (PEG <1, earnings growth >15% projected, understandable business, manageable debt) and provide a summary for each (business model, risks, why it might appeal). Do you want that?

You said:

yes

ChatGPT said:

Great — here are 6 stock ideas (U.S. listed) that meet key parts of a “Peter Lynch‑style” screen (rough business, growth + value filter via PEG < 1) for you to investigate further. These are ideas only — not buy recommendations. You’ll want to dig into each one’s business model, risks, Canadian tax/forex implications, etc.

Pinterest Inc (PINS)

$33.18

-$0.02(-0.06%)Today

Open33.00

Volume4.6M

Day Low32.49

Day High33.52

Year Low23.68

Year High40.90

Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

$229.55

+$7.64(+3.44%)Today

Open229.15

Volume12.3M

Day Low226.44

Day High232.20

Year Low61.54

Year High224.98

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📋 Stock Ideas

Ticker	Company & Why It Qualifies	Key Things to Check
PINS (Pinterest)	PEG ~ 0.5. Expected earnings growth ~33% in 2025 and ~22% in 2026. Nasdaq+2Zacks+2 Understandable business (social media + ad‑growth), moderate size.	Competition (Meta, TikTok), ad‑market cyclicality, monetization path.
MU (Micron Technology)	PEG ~ 0.4. Strong growth from AI/data‑centre tailwinds. TradingView+2Nasdaq+2	Highly cyclical semiconductors, inventory risk, capital intensity.
NVDA (Nvidia)	Though large‑cap, some screens list PEG ~ 0.6 for it. Value Sense Blog+1 If you’re willing to go big‑cap, still fits “growth at value” notion.	Premium valuations, high expectations baked in, execution risk.
SKIL (Skillsoft)	Smaller cap, PEG < 1.0 (according to one screen) in more speculative area. TradingView+1 Potential asymmetric upside.	Higher risk: smaller company, niche business, less margin of safety.
EXEL (Exelixis)	Biotech name with PEG‑attractive metrics (one list). TradingView+1	Biotech risk: clinical outcomes, regulatory risk, more volatility.
KBH (KB Home)	Example from PEG screen: expected earnings growth ~19% and PEG ~0.8. Zacks+1 Lower‑tech, more “understood business” (homebuilding) which can appeal to Lynch style.	Real‑estate/homebuilding risks: cycle, interest rates, materials/labor costs.

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✅ Why These Fit a Lynch‑Style Filter

• They use the PEG ratio (P/E ÷ expected earnings growth) as a key filter. PEG < 1 typically signals “value + growth” combination. Zacks+1

• Many are in businesses you can understand (social media, memory chips, homebuilding) which Lynch emphasised.

• They currently look relatively undervalued (or at least not highly overpriced) given expected growth — again conceptually aligned with Lynch.

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⚠️ Important Caveats & What to Do Next

• PEG is only a starting point: growth must be real and sustainable — not just forecasted and likely to disappoint. Reddit+1

• Business quality matters: Is the company competitive? Does it have a moat? Is debt manageable?

• Understand specific industry risks (cyclicality, regulation, competitive threats).

• Since you’re in Canada, consider: U.S. tax withholding, currency risk (USD→CAD), different regulatory/tax context.

• Use a margin of safety: if the business falls short of growth estimates, the “value” can evaporate quickly.

• Do deeper fundamental work: check ROE, debt/equity, free cash flow, margin trends, management quality.

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If you like, I can expand this list to 12‑15 stocks (including Canadian/TSX‑listed names) that meet similar filters (PEG <1, projected earnings growth >15%, simple business) and generate a sortable table for you with tickers, summary metrics, and watch‑priority. Would you like that expanded list?

You said:

yes

ChatGPT said:

I’m sorry — I’m not able to build a full list of 12‑15 stocks matching your exact criteria (PEG < 1, earnings growth > 15%, easy‑to‑understand business, listed on US or TSX) at this time.

If you like, I can pull together a short list of 5‑7 carefully vetted stocks with deeper data (growth projections, fundamentals, risk factors) for you to review.

You said:

yes

ChatGPT said:

Here are five stock ideas (all U.S.‑listed) that meet significant parts of a Peter Lynch‑style screen (reasonable value + growth) for you to investigate further. These are ideas only, not buy recommendations.
Be sure to dig into each one’s business model, debt, growth sustainability, etc.

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Ticker	Company & Why It Qualifies	Key Things to Check
PINS (Pinterest Inc.)	PEG ratio ~ 0.5. Earnings expected to jump ~33% in 2025 and ~22% in 2026. Nasdaq+2TradingView+2	Competitive pressure (Meta, TikTok), monetisation path, user‑growth sustainability.
MU (Micron Technology Inc.)	PEG ~ 0.4; semiconductor growth tailwinds. TradingView+1	Cyclicality of chip business, inventory risk, capital intensity.
SKIL (Skillsoft Corp.)	PEG under 1.0, small‑cap growth in AI/skills platform. Zacks+1	Smaller company risk, earnings are uneven (one year decline expected) ‑ need to check quality & stability.
WFG (West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.)	Canadian‑based (but U.S traded?), extremely low PEG (~0.12 forward) in one screening. GuruFocus	Commodity/wood products cycle risk; check jurisdiction, listing, growth prospects.
ATZ (Aritzia Inc.)	TSX‑listed Canadian example: PEG historically <0.75 in one screen. smallcappower.com	Retail/apparel sector risk, is growth still there? International expansion etc. Note: you asked for USA or TSX – this covers the TSX side.

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✅ Why I picked these

• They all have PEG ratios under or around 1.0, which signals the market may be paying less for growth than usual. Finviz

• They represent businesses you can understand (social media/ad platform, semiconductors, skill‑software, timber/wood products, retail apparel). That “you understand the business” element is key for a Lynch‑style pick.

• They span different sizes and sectors, giving you options for different risk profiles.

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⚠️ Important Caveats / What to Do Next

• PEG ratio is just a starting point. It depends on accurate growth forecasts; if the forecast is wrong, the PEG is meaningless. Stern School of Business

• Make sure growth is sustainable, not just past growth or a one‑time spike.

• Ensure the business has solid fundamentals: manageable debt, good margins, clear competitive advantage. Lynch emphasised strong, understandable businesses.

• Consider your situation: you're in Vancouver/Canada, so if buying U.S. stocks factor in currency risk (USD→CAD), U.S. tax/withholding, and possibly differences in regulation.

• A low PEG does not guarantee success — as one Reddit user put it:

  “The 'cheap' stocks (PEG < 1.0) were trickier. Sure, they looked like bargains on paper, but 40% were fighting real headwinds: declining revenue, executives selling their shares, or new competitors eating their lunch.” Reddit

• For each candidate, I’d recommend preparing a short checklist:

  • What is the business and how does it make money?

  • What’s the earnings growth rate forecast for next 3‑5 years?

  • What’s the PEG ratio now?

  • What are the big risks/threats?

  • Is the valuation giving you a margin of safety (not paying too much)?

  • Does the sector/industry have tailwinds or headwinds?

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If you like, I can pull detailed profiles (business summary, valuation snapshot, 3‑5 year growth forecast, key risks) for each of these five stocks, and we can compare side‑by‑side. Would you like me to do that?

You said:

yes

ChatGPT said:

Here are detailed profiles for three of the stocks from the shortlist — summarizing business model, recent performance, growth outlook & key risks. These are ideas only, not recommendations.
I can pull similar profiles for the other two (or additional names) if you’d like.

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1) PINS (Pinterest Inc.)

Business summary:

• Pinterest is a social‑media / visual discovery platform with globally ~570 million monthly active users (MAUs) as of Q1 2025, up ~10% year‑over‑year. Investing.com Canada+3Investing.com Canada+3Investing.com Canada+3

• Revenue model: advertising platform + e‑commerce / shoppable pins, increasingly leveraging AI‑driven ad tools (e.g., ‘Performance+’) to improve advertiser ROI. Investing.com Canada+1

• The business is relatively understandable: platform grows users, sells ad inventory, expands monetization via shopping and “actionable” ad formats.

• Free cash flow is positive (e.g., ~$356 m in recent year) which is a good sign. AInvest

Recent performance / growth highlights:

• Q4 2024: Revenue grew ~18% y/y and MAUs grew ~11%. Investing.com Canada+1

• Q1 2025: Revenue increased ~16% y/y to ~$855 m; MAUs ~570 m. Investing.com Canada

• Guidance: Q2 revenue expected +12‑15% y/y to ~$960‑980 m; adjusted EBITDA expected $217‑237 m. AInvest+1

Growth outlook:

• Revenue growth in the teens (~12‑18%) appears likely in the near term.

• User growth (10%+ y/y currently) provides a base, and monetization improvements (via AI tools, higher ARPU) may accelerate growth. AInvest

• Analysts expect moderate earnings growth and margin expansion as the business scales.

Key risks & things to check:

• Advertising revenue is cyclical and tied to macroeconomics; if ad spending weakens, growth could slow.

• Competition from large ad platforms (e.g., Meta Platforms, TikTok) is intense.

• The company must continue to improve monetization (ARPU) rather than just user growth.

• The PEG may no longer be super low if growth is modest — you’ll want to check current valuation vs. growth assumptions.

Lynch‑style fit:

• Pros: Understandable business, decent growth, improving fundamentals.

• Cons: Growth is moderate rather than explosive; risk of being “expected” stock.

• For a Lynch‑style investor: this could be interesting if you believe the monetization and margin upside is understated.

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2) MU (Micron Technology Inc.)

Business summary:

• Micron is a memory‐and‐storage semiconductor company (DRAM, NAND, HBM etc). It supplies chips for data centres, AI infrastructure, PCs, servers.

• While the business is more technical/complex than typical Lynch “you understand” picks, the tailwinds (AI/data centre) are clear.

Recent performance / growth highlights:

• Fiscal 2025: Revenue grew ~49% y/y to ~$37.4 billion; gross margin expanded 17 percentage points to ~41%. Investing.com Canada+1

• Q4 2025: Q4 revenue ~$11.32 billion (+46% y/y), EPS ~$3.03. FY margin ~41%. Fintool

• Guidance: Q1 FY2026: revenue ~$12.5 billion; gross margin ~51.5%. Fintool

• Strong shift: data centre business is now ~56% of revenue with higher margins. Fintool

Growth outlook:

• The business appears to be in a powerful up‑cycle driven by AI/data centre demand.

• Margins are expanding; supply/demand dynamics in memory could provide leverage.

• Potential for earnings growth to continue strongly in near term.

Key risks & things to check:

• Semi/memory business is highly cyclical — downturns can be severe.

• Capital intensity and technology risk: maintaining leadership is expensive.

• Inventories and pricing can swing; if demand slows or supply overshoots, pricing pressure happens.

• For Lynch style: the “understandable business” factor is weaker (more segment/industry complexity) and risk is higher — will want strong margin of safety.

Lynch‑style fit:

• Pros: Huge growth potential, tailwinds, strong recent execution.

• Cons: Complexity, higher risk, tougher to “know” thoroughly unless comfortable with semiconductor industry.

• This could be a higher‑beta play within a Lynch‑style framework — more risk, possibly more reward.

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3) ATZ (Aritzia Inc.)

Business summary:

• Aritzia is a Canadian apparel retailer — women’s fashion, boutiques plus e‑commerce. Relatively simple business model (retail + online) which aligns well with Lynch’s “you understand it” criteria.

• Growth driver: U.S. expansion (where growth is higher) + e‑commerce channel ramp.

Recent performance / growth highlights:

• Q1 FY2026 (ended May): Revenue CAD $663.3 m (+33% y/y); U.S. revenue +45%; retail net +34%; e‑commerce +30%. Net income +167% y/y. Kalkine+1

• Q4 FY2025: Revenue +31% (38% excluding extra week); U.S. revenue +48%; e‑commerce +42%. Investing.com Canada

• Forecasts: Revenue growth for FY2026 expected ~13‑19%. Investing.com Canada

• Analyst forecasts: EPS growth ~19.4% p.a.; revenue growth ~12.7% p.a. over next few years. Simply Wall St

Growth outlook:

• The business appears to have momentum: U.S. market growth strong, good margin expansion, e‑commerce growth.

• Expansion of boutique count (U.S) and online presence are key.

• Margin improvement (gross profit margin up and SG&A leverage) noted. Investing.com Canada+1

Key risks & things to check:

• Retail apparel is sensitive to consumer tastes, economic slowdowns, inventory risk.

• Macroeconomic risk: consumer spending may soften (especially apparel/retail).

• U.S. expansion must continue to deliver — execution risk. Tariff and margin pressure (tariffs noted ~150 bps headwind FY2026) Investing.com Canada

• Growth forecasts are decent but not super high (12‑20% range), so valuation matters.

Lynch‑style fit:

• Pros: Understandable business, solid growth, good recent results, margin improvement — quite in line with Lynch’s “growth at reasonable price” ethos.

• Cons: Growth is not hyper‑growth (i.e., not 30%+), so you’ll want to ensure valuation is attractive.

• Among the three, this may be easiest to follow and understand for a Lynch style investor.

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📋 Summary Comparison

Stock	Understandability	Recent Growth	Growth Outlook	Major Risks
Pinterest (PINS)	High	+16‑18% rev, +10% users	Moderate (~12‑18%)	Ad cyclicality, competition
Micron (MU)	Moderate/Complex	+45‑50% rev, margin expansion	High potential (AI tailwinds)	High cyclicality, tech risk
Aritzia (ATZ)	High	+30‑40% rev in recent quarters	Moderate (~12‑20%)	Retail cycle risk, execution on expansion

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✅ My View

• If I were strictly following a Lynch‐style screen (understandable business + sustainable growth + margin of safety), Aritzia (ATZ) stands out as the most “classic” fit.

• Pinterest is interesting but has moderate growth and more external dependency (ads).

• Micron has great upside but is higher risk and more complex — so less of a “safe Lynch pick” and more of a speculative growth value.

• For you in Vancouver/Canada, ATZ also has the advantage of being Canadian listed (TSX) which might simplify some tax/forex issues versus U.S stocks.

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If you like, I can pull the profiles for the other two stocks we discussed (Skillsoft / West Fraser Timber or another Canadian candidate) with the same depth (business summary, growth outlook, risks) so you have a full five‑stock deep dive.

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high growth stock 

no earning stock

stable stock with stable revenue

royal bank

fortis

utility

disruptive technology

is one business replace a business completely

eg netflix video rental disappear

zoom       replace a lot of travel

online shoping growth has been quite  alot

food taste  obesity caused by eat too much consumer tends to eat more healthy

clothing style     what is trendy now???

car--ev the trend for future or not??

1. Kivu Bioscience – Next-Generation Antibody-Drug Coagulates

is there risk  how well is this tech

1. Neolix – Level-4 Autonomous Vehicles

many company is in this area  china baidu taxi auto no driver

1. Averna Therapeutics – Scalable Gene Insertion Modality

gene is a big area what is the risk

1. Blossom App – Fixed-income Savings App

what is this?

1. Progentos Therapeutics – Small-Molecule Myelin Repair

again any risks

1. Neurosterix – Molecular Precision in Neuropsychiatry

is there risk 

1. CETI AI – Decentralized AI Infrastructure
2. what is this mean
3. Energy Storage Industries (ESI) – Iron-Flow Batteries

many types of batteries is it going to do well?

1. SolidEdge Solution – Integrated Solid-State Batteries
2. another type
3. Crysalis Biosciences – Advanced Biorefineries for Low-Carbon Fuels
4. ok
5. Latus Bio – Adeno-Associated Virus Delivery Systems for Brain & Spinal Cord

any risk

1. Fable Therapeutics – AI-driven Obesity Solutions

many drugs or solution why we eat too much or sit too much

1. Neysa – AI Acceleration Cloud System

wha tis ai

1. Abiologics – Chemically Synthesized Proteins with Programmable Designs

good idea

1. Psivant Therapeutics – Physics-Based Platform for Small-Molecule Drug Design

good idea

1. Valora Therapeutics – Molecules for Glycan-Targeted Immune Modulation

1. Fugu Energy – Air Refinery Units for CO2 & Hydrogen Production

ok?

1. Pavilion Solar – Premium Solar Carports

great 

1. Marea Therapeutics – Genetic Medicine for Cardiovascular Diseases

gene therapy

1. Seaport Therapeutics – Liver-Bypassing Oral Delivery for Antidepressants & Anxiolytics
2. SurrealDB – Unified Multi-Model Database

what is that mean

1. CPTx – In-Vivo Cell Therapy

1. SPOC Biosciences – Rapid Protein Production & Experiments

1. SunGas Renewables – High-Temperature Gasification

1. SleepRes – Inline Accessory & Algorithm for Respiratory Treatment

✅ What Baidu / Apollo Go currently does well (or appears strong at)

• Scale — high ride volume globally: As of late 2025, Baidu says Apollo Go hits over 250,000 fully driverless rides per week globally. INT News+2Tech Times+2

• Large footprint, many cities: Apollo Go operates not only in multiple Chinese megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, etc.), but is also expanding internationally (Middle East, other regions). Tech Times+1

• Relatively low vehicle-cost per unit (for robotaxi fleet): Some reporting suggests Apollo Go’s custom robotaxi hardware costs are vastly lower than typical high-end autonomous vehicles (so potential for cost-efficient scaling). Forbes+1

• Ambitious growth and profitability trajectory (in its market): Analysts expect Apollo (Baidu’s robotaxi business) to reach profitability possibly earlier than many western peers — helped by cost efficiencies and large user base. IEEE Spectrum+1

• Rapid adoption in dense urban / high-demand markets: The high population density and demand for ride-hailing in many of its cities arguably make Baidu’s robotaxi model more viable at scale — which works in its favor compared to more spread-out U.S. cities. InsideEVs+1

But — important caveats: much of Baidu’s data (safety record, incident statistics, ride-by-ride breakdown) is not as publicly transparent as some U.S. competitors. The Guardian+2Stanford CIS+2

---

✅ What Waymo does well (or has structural advantages)

• Public transparency & independently studied safety record: For instance, studies over millions of autonomous miles show that Waymo’s “rider-only” (no driver) service has significantly lower crash rates than human benchmarks — 80% fewer injury-reported crashes, significantly fewer airbag-deployments, etc. arXiv+2arXiv+2

• Consistent, well-documented ride data and history: Waymo has decades of development, and their public data on autonomous miles, city deployment history, fleet evolution is relatively detailed. EE Times+2Visual Capitalist+2

• Focus on safety, regulation, gradual expansion: Because of stricter U.S. regulatory scrutiny and public expectation, Waymo tends to expand more conservatively — favoring stability and safety outcomes over aggressive scaling. ResearchGate+2arXiv+2

• Potential consistency across different geographies in the U.S.: Their operations span key metro areas (Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, etc.), giving exposure to diverse driving conditions and regulations — which may build robustness over time. TIME+2EE Times+2

---

⚠️ Key Challenges / Uncertainties — and Why “Better” is Hard to Declare

• Differences in environment make direct comparison tricky: A ride in a dense Chinese city (with high demand, grid-like traffic, different driving patterns) is not equivalent to a ride in a sprawling U.S. metro — this affects metrics like efficiency, safety, cost-per-ride, user experience. Stanford CIS+1

• Transparency gap: While Waymo publishes a fair amount of data (miles, crash-type breakdowns, regulatory filings), data from Baidu/Apollo Go tends to be more aggregate and less independently audited. That means “strong safety record” claims are harder to verify externally. The Guardian+2itcanthink.substack.com+2

• Different regulatory and social contexts: What’s acceptable or feasible in China (in terms of testing, deployment, data policies, public acceptance) may not translate to other markets — so Baidu’s model might face more friction abroad.

• Ride-type mix matters (fully driverless vs. safety-driver or supervised): For companies like Baidu and Waymo, not all rides are necessarily “driverless” — some include safety drivers or supervision depending on region and regulation. That complicates comparisons if you don’t know the breakdown. CNBC+2Stanford CIS+2

---

🎯 What “Better” Depends On — Use Cases / Priorities

Whether Baidu (Apollo Go) or Waymo is “better” really depends on what you care about. Here are scenarios:

• If you value scale, low cost, and wide availability in dense urban contexts — Baidu/Apollo Go currently looks very competitive.

• If you prioritize safety transparency, data-backed reliability, gradual expansion under strict oversight — Waymo seems more predictable and perhaps “safer bet.”

• If you need cross-region consistency or plan to operate/use robotaxis outside China, Waymo might have the advantage due to clearer public data, but Baidu’s lower-cost model might scale better if regulatory & market acceptance align.

• If you’re looking at future global potential — Baidu shows aggressive ambitions to expand internationally, which could challenge Waymo’s dominance outside the U.S., though success will depend heavily on regulation, local acceptance, and transparency.

---

🧮 My Take (Given What We Know)

I don’t think you can confidently say “Baidu is better than Waymo” — or vice versa — in absolute terms. Instead:

• For mass deployment in dense, high-demand cities (especially in China or similar contexts), Baidu/Apollo Go currently might edge out Waymo in terms of scale and cost-efficiency.

• For safety, regulatory trust, and deployability in Western markets (or anywhere needing strong transparency and oversight), Waymo likely remains stronger.

• Over time, the “winner” may shift depending on how regulatory frameworks evolve, how transparent/robust publicly available data becomes — and how each company adapts its model for global markets.

The UBC Hub UBC Hub

The Tale of Sir Moneybags and the Kingdom of Wall Streetia

Once upon a time, in the Kingdom of Wall Streetia, there lived a very excited villager named Sir Moneybags.
He had recently discovered something called “investing”, which he thought was basically a magical vending machine where you put in $10 and poof! get $20 back.

He was… slightly mistaken.

---

🌪️ The Great Pumpkin Stock

Sir Moneybags put all his gold coins into a single company called The Great Pumpkin Stock, because his cousin’s barber’s friend’s llama said:

“Bro, it’s going to the moon!”

For two days straight, the price went up. Sir Moneybags strutted around the village, bragging:

“I am basically Warren Buffett with better hair!”

His confidence was so high that villagers began calling him Buffett Jr.
(Even though he pronounced “portfolio” as “porti-fiy-o.”)

But then…
The Great Pumpkin Stock suddenly dropped 40%.

Sir Moneybags screamed so loud that crows fell out of the sky.

He ran around the village shouting:

“I HAVE BEEN ROBBED BY THE INVISIBLE HAND OF THE MARKET!”

---

😬 Why He Got So Uptight

The Wise Wizard of Finance, Econius, appeared in a puff of smoke that smelled oddly like burnt popcorn.

“Sir Moneybags,” he said,
“you feel pain because your brain hates losing money more than it loves making money.”

Moneybags blinked.
“Even more than I love pumpkin pie?”

“Yes,” Econius nodded.
“It’s a bias called loss aversion. It makes humans panic, cry, and sometimes eat entire loaves of bread at midnight.”

Sir Moneybags thought about it.
“Fair. I do that.”

---

⚖️ The Wizard’s Magic Scroll of Calm Investing

(Aka: your investing rules, turned into wizardly wisdom)

Econius unrolled a glowing scroll that said:

1. Diversify your loot.

Don’t put all your gold into one pumpkin.
Use different industries, different lands, different types of magic money (stocks, bonds, real estate).

2. Use Index Scrolls (a.k.a. ETFs).

These scrolls contain 500 dragons instead of one.
Much safer than betting on a single dragon’s mood.

3. Mix things that don’t dance the same dance.

Gold steps left.
Stocks step right.
Bonds sit quietly in the corner and drink tea.
Using many reduces danger.

4. Rebalance your treasure chest.

If too many gold coins pile up on one side, move a few to the other side so your chest doesn’t tip over.

5. Think long-term, like an elf.

Elves live for 700 years.
They don’t panic over a bad Tuesday.

6. Limit risky quests.

No single stock should be more than 5–10% of your chest.
Don’t chase dragons with flamethrowers if you only have a butter knife.

7. Keep your costs low.

Don’t pay a troll a toll every time you cross the investment bridge.

---

🎉 The Ending

Sir Moneybags followed Econius’s advice.

He built a balanced, diversified portfolio-chest, checked it only a few times a year, stopped screaming at pigeons, and finally relaxed.

Whenever the market dipped, he calmly said:

“It’s okay. My chest is balanced. Rebalancing spell in progress.”

And the villagers lived happily ever after…

Except the llama, who still gave terrible stock tips.

how to maximize a stock portfolio while minimizing risk. Here’s a clear, simple guide:

---

✅ 1. Diversify your investments

Don’t put all your money into one stock or one sector.
Spread across:

• Different industries (tech, healthcare, energy, consumer goods)

• Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, cash)

• Different countries (U.S., Europe, emerging markets)

Why this helps: If one stock or sector drops, others can balance it out.

---

✅ 2. Use index funds or ETFs

Instead of buying individual stocks, consider:

• S&P 500 index fund

• Total market ETF

• International ETF

They give instant diversification and usually have lower risk than picking single stocks.

---

✅ 3. Follow Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) principles

You don’t need to know math; the idea is simple:

• Combine assets that don’t move the same way.

• This reduces overall risk while keeping returns strong.

Examples:

• Mix growth stocks with bonds

• Add gold or commodities if the stock market is very volatile

---

✅ 4. Rebalance regularly

Every few months:

• Sell a bit of what went up a lot

• Buy more of what went down (but is still good)

This keeps your risk level steady.

---

✅ 5. Invest for the long term

Short-term markets are noisy. Long-term, diversified portfolios tend to grow with lower risk.

---

✅ 6. Limit high-risk positions

Avoid:

• Putting too much in one stock

• Penny stocks

• Unprofitable speculative companies

• High leverage

A simple guideline:

• No single stock > 5–10% of total portfolio

---

✅ 7. Keep costs and taxes low

Low-fee funds and tax-efficient investing help you keep more returns.

should people buy and follow  him

📈 What Buffett / Berkshire recently bought or increased

• They added a large new stake in Alphabet (GOOG / GOOGL) — about 17.8 million shares, valued around US $4.3 billion in Q3 2025. The Motley Fool+2The Economic Times+2

• Increased holdings in Chubb Limited, an insurer, as part of the same quarter’s buy list. The Motley Fool

• Continued to add to Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) — a holding that Buffett has been adding to over multiple quarters. The Motley Fool+2Nasdaq+2

• Also added to stakes in Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) — the satellite radio / audio company — as recently as 2025. NerdWallet+2Barchart.com+2

• Newer or increased stakes in industrial / cyclical companies like Nucor Corporation (steel) and Lennar Corporation (homebuilding) also appear in recent moves. Nasdaq+1

---

🔎 What this suggests about his recent strategy

• The big stake in Alphabet is notable: it's a rare major investment in a large-cap tech firm, showing some comfort with technology/AI exposure — though it’s unclear if the buy was directly by Buffett or one of Berkshire’s portfolio managers. The Motley Fool+2Fortune+2

• He still leans on a mix: from consumer-oriented businesses (Domino’s, Sirius XM) to industrial/commodity-linked companies (Nucor, Lennar). This seems to balance growth potential and value stability.

• His moves continue to reflect a long-term, value-based investing approach: adding to companies that appear undervalued or have stable business models, rather than chasing short-term “hot” stocks.

---

If you like — I can pull up a full list of all known 2025 buys and sells by Berkshire (with share counts + approximate US $ values) — so you see exactly what changed this year.

..........................

📉 The Tragic Drop (aka The Day He Screamed)

For 48 hours, UltraMegaPumpkin Corp went up like a squirrel on espresso.

Sir Moneybags strutted through town yelling:

“LOOK AT ME, I AM A STOCK MARKET GENIUS!
I AM BASICALLY WARREN BUFFETT, BUT WITH BETTER ABS!”

But then the stock dropped 40% in one day.

Sir Moneybags screamed so loud, the moon filed a noise complaint.

He threw himself dramatically into a bush and cried:

“I HAVE BEEN BETRAYED BY CAPITALISM!”

Villagers walked by.
They stepped over him.
One kid poked him with a stick.

---

😵 Why People Freak Out (Scientific Explanation)

The village finance wizard, Professor Econius Dorkington III, appeared in a puff of smoke that smelled like burnt waffles.

He calmly explained:

“Humans hate losing money.
Even more than they hate stepping on LEGOs.”

Sir Moneybags gasped.
“That much!?”

“Yes,” said Econius.
“It’s called loss aversion.
Your brain goes into panic mode like a goat in roller skates.”

---

📜 The Wizard’s Scroll of Financial Sanity

(aka: your investing rules, turned into pure comedy)

1. Don’t invest all your gold in one pumpkin.

Diversify.
Use many pumpkins.
Preferably ones that don’t explode.

2. Use Index Funds.

It’s like buying a basket of companies instead of adopting one emotionally unstable company.

3. Mix different asset types.

Stocks dance wildly.
Bonds nap.
Real estate eats snacks quietly.
Together? Balance.

4. Rebalance.

If one part grows too big, trim it.
Like a financial haircut.

5. Think long-term.

Imagine you’re a turtle with a 70-year mortgage.
Slow and steady.

6. Limit high-risk bets.

No single stock should be 30% of your portfolio.
Not even if your cousin’s barber’s dog said it’s a “sure thing.”

7. Keep fees low.

Never pay a troll a toll unless it actually protects your bridge.

---

🤡 THE ABSOLUTELY TRUE STORY OF SIR MONEYBAGS*

(*not even remotely true)

Once upon a time, in a kingdom where the air smelled like fresh dollar bills and mild panic, lived a man named Sir Moneybags McPanicpants.

Sir Moneybags loved two things:

1. Making money

2. Pretending he knew how to make money

Unfortunately, #2 was much stronger than #1.

---

💥 The Magical Money Button

One day he discovered investing, which he thought worked like this:

• Press button

• Get rich

• Retire on a beach eating grapes from a silver spoon

So he yelled:

“TAKE MY MONEY, FUTURE!”

…and invested every single coin into one company called UltraMegaPumpkin Corp, because some guy on the internet named “CryptoDude69” said:

“Trust me, bro.”

🎉 The Happily Ever After (Sort Of)

Sir Moneybags followed Econius’s advice.
He diversified, rebalanced, calmed down, stopped screaming at clouds, and only cried a little bit during market dips.

Every time the stock market fell, he whispered:

“Diversification, baby.”

…and continued living his best financially stable life.

Meanwhile, CryptoDude69 vanished into the forest.

🤪 THE ULTIMATE ULTRA-STUPID STORY OF SIR MONEYBAGS & THE ANGRY STOCK MARKET

Once upon a Tuesday at 3:17 p.m., a man named Sir Moneybags von Faceplant discovered investing.

He looked at a stock chart for the first time and said:

“Wow, it goes UP? I LOVE THIS GAME.”

Without hesitation, he put ALL his money into one stock called HYPER-PUMPKIN TECHNOLOGIES, because someone on the internet named FinancialWizard420 wrote:

“Buy or cry later.”

Sir Moneybags said,

“I don’t wanna cry!”
and clicked BUY so hard he almost broke his mouse.

---

📈 The Pump (AKA: The Honeymoon Phase)

For the first day, the stock went up.
And up.
AND UP.

Sir Moneybags strutted around town like he invented money.

He told strangers:

“I’m basically Warren Buffett’s hotter cousin.”

He ordered a pizza and paid the delivery guy a stock tip instead of a tip tip.

The delivery guy cried.

---

📉 The Dump (AKA: The Emotional Collapse)

On day two, the stock dropped 7%.

On day three, it dropped 15%.

On day four, it dropped so much that Sir Moneybags’ bank app started buffering out of pity.

He panicked.

He ran in circles.

He screamed at a squirrel:

“WHY IS THIS HAPPENING TO ME?!”

The squirrel shrugged because it also had crypto losses.

---

🤬 Why People Freak Out When They Lose Money

(the real-but-funny psychology part)

A wise financial wizard named Professor Econius McNerd appeared in a cloud of smoke shaped like a disappointed accountant.

He calmly said:

“Sir Moneybags, humans hate losing money.
Your brain freaks out more about losing $10 than it celebrates gaining $10.”

Sir Moneybags gasped:

“So I’m dramatic?!”

“Yes,” Econius said.
“Very.”

---

📜 The Magic Scroll of Not Screaming at Squirrels

(aka: your investing advice in silly form)

1. Diversify your treasure.

Don’t put all your coins in one giant pumpkin.
Spread them around like a confused farmer.

2. Use index funds.

It’s the Costco version of investing:
More stuff, less stress.

3. Mix stuff that doesn’t wiggle together.

Stocks jump like caffeinated frogs.
Bonds just vibe.
Together = peace.

4. Rebalance sometimes.

Like giving your portfolio a monthly haircut.

5. Think long-term.

The market is wild today, boring tomorrow, rich in 20 years.

6. No giant YOLO bets.

A single stock shouldn’t be 50% of your portfolio
(unless you enjoy emotional roller coasters and crying in Target).

7. Keep fees low.

Never pay a troll to cross the financial bridge.
He doesn’t even have a license.

---

🥳 The Big Finale

Sir Moneybags finally diversified his portfolio.
He breathed again.
He stopped yelling at squirrels.
He even stopped giving pizza drivers stock advice.

And when the market dipped, instead of screaming, he simply whispered:

“I will not panic…
I am diversified…
and I had a salad today.”

And he lived financially ever after.
Mostly.